By: Tyrone S’ng, Data and Solutions Lead
The FIFA World Cup 2026 is set to be the biggest tournament in football history. Hosted across the United States, Canada and Mexico, the competition will feature 48 teams, 104 matches and, for the first time, a Round of 32 knockout stage. Running for more than five weeks, it will also be the longest World Cup to date, giving fans more football, more drama and more opportunities for surprises.
With anticipation building ahead of kick-off, Pureprofile surveyed 2,400 football fans across eight favourites: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. We asked fans how far they expect their national team to go and which team they believe will lift the trophy. Their predictions reveal a fascinating mix of confidence, national pride and realistic expectations.
Spain and France are the teams to beat
When asked who they think will win the FIFA World Cup 2026, Spain and France emerged as the joint favourites among football fans. Across all 2,400 respondents, 19% backed Spain and 19% backed France to lift the trophy, ahead of reigning champions Argentina on 15%.
What makes this result particularly interesting is the breadth of support. Both France and Spain attracted strong support from outside their home countries. 59% of Spain’s winner predictions came from fans outside Spain, while 62% of predictions that France will win the FIFA World Cup 2026 came from non-French respondents.
Among respondents who chose a country other than their own, France and Spain were the clear favourites, each attracting 21% of votes. This highlights just how highly both teams are regarded across football’s biggest nations.
Together, Spain, France, Argentina and Brazil account for 65% of all winner predictions, showing that fans believe the race for the trophy is likely to be dominated by a small group of established football powerhouses.
Argentina fans lead the confidence stakes
While Spain and France emerge as the overall favourites, Argentina fans are the most confident in their own team. 72% of Argentine respondents believe their national team will win the FIFA World Cup 2026, making them the most optimistic fanbase in the survey. Argentina enter the tournament as defending world champions after their triumph in Qatar in 2022, and our insights show many fans believe they can retain the trophy.
However, Argentina’s support appears to be driven more heavily by domestic belief than that of Spain and France. While Argentina fans overwhelmingly back their own team, both Spain and France received significantly more support from football fans outside their own borders.
Spain also shows strong self-belief, with 61% of Spanish respondents backing their team to become champions. Behind Argentina and Spain, confidence is more tightly grouped: 49% of Brazilian respondents, 48% of French respondents, and 46% of Portuguese respondents believe their national team will win.
Not all fans are dreaming of World Cup glory
The survey highlights just how differently fans assess their team’s chances of World Cup success. England fans are particularly divided in their expectations. 22% expect England to reach the quarter-finals, 22% predict a semi-final appearance and 20% believe England will go all the way and win the tournament. The spread of responses suggests England supporters are balancing optimism with realism after several near misses at past tournaments.
German and Dutch fans are more cautious in their expectations. For both countries, the most common prediction was a quarter-final exit. 27% of Dutch respondents and 25% of German respondents selected the quarter-finals as the most likely outcome.
The Netherlands recorded the lowest overall winner expectation in the study, with only 4% of all respondents backing them to become champions.
These differences highlight an important aspect of football fandom. Some supporters view their team through the lens of recent success and expectation, while others take a more measured approach, even when their country is among the bookmakers’ favourites. Spain and France may be the top favourites in our football fans’ winner predictions, but history has shown that World Cups rarely unfold exactly as expected.
The infographics below represent the predictions from our survey:
Based on a Pureprofile survey of 2,400 people in Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain, conducted on Datarubico – Pureprofile’s all-in-one research platform, May 2026.
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Tyrone S’ng
Data and Solutions Lead
With experience spanning Southeast Asia and the United Kingdom, Tyrone brings a global perspective to his role as Data and Solutions Lead. Tyrone serves as a trusted advisor for the Data & Insights team, translating complex client needs into actionable, data-driven solutions and supporting internal teams to ensure optimal project delivery.
In addition to his professional practice, Tyrone served as an Adjunct Lecturer at Temasek Polytechnic, where he taught Research Methods for the Specialist Diploma in Applied Psychology (Behavioural Insights). This dual engagement in both academia and industry positions him to bridge rigorous research standards with practical, client-focused insights.
